Normal Boring And Complacent Bull Is Back

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Yesterday marked the first time since November 2020 (and only the 46th time since 1950) that the S&P 500 followed a 10-day loss of at least 6% with a 10-day gain of more than 8%. Historically, rebounds like this are powerful: average returns are nearly 20% six months later and over 25% a year later.

WTI Extends Gains As US Crude Inventories Tumble To 6-Month Lows

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...crude stockpiles down for the 7th week in the last 8 and distillates stocks falling by the most since March...


Surge In Derivative Bets Leaves Bitcoin "Ripe For A Short Squeeze" As ETF Inflows Accelerate

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“The current combination of surging open interest and negative 7-day average funding rates is unique and promising,”


Macy's Plunges On "Sharp Cut" To Full-Year Forecast; Goldman Expects Consumer Weakness To Persist

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"This is a disappointing result for Macy's and a sharp cut to the company's forecast for sales and comp trends for the full year."

 


Rabobank: Kamala Taxing Unrealized Gains Would Risk Mass Sale Of US Assets And The Rich Fleeing

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Meanwhile, Trump favors lower taxes: fiscal deficit, fiscal shmeficit. Which tax rates do your models assume?


Justice Department Steps In For Trump In George Floyd Protests Case

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The department is moving to dismiss the case...


Ukraine Sends One Of Largest Ever Drone Attacks On Russian Capital

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Moscow mayor: "one of the largest attempts to attack Moscow with the help of drones of all time."


Traders Consistently Underestimate The Fed

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Based on history, the market is betting on an anomaly, like 1995-1998, and not normal monetary policy behavior...


"The Torch Has Been Passed" - Protests Escalate As Obamas & RINOs Take The Stage On DNC Day 2

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...'Big Mike' & Barry, RINOs, and Daddy Emhoff ignore the growing violence on the streets of Chicago...


Futures Rise Ahead Of Payroll Revisions, FOMC Minutes

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“Given that the US labor market is at the center of the Fed’s policy, the publication is of unusually high interest. A large downward revision in the number of new jobs created could add new fuel to concerns that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates.”


Russia Summons US Envoy Over Presence Of American Mercenaries, CNN Crew In Kursk Region

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"provocative actions" of both American journalists & US mercenaries...


Commercial Vessel "Not Under Command" After Red Sea Attack 

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"Subsequently at 0500UTC, the Master reported that the merchant vessel had been struck by two unidentified projectiles... "


No, The Biden And Harris' Border Crisis Is Not Over

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The number of inadmissible aliens who have been encountered at our borders or crossed uncaught since the start of Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 is unprecedented.


Wall Street On Edge: Election Talk In Earnings Calls Up 'More Sharply' Than Past Political Cycles

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"Election discussions have entered management commentary earlier than in past election cycles..." 


Time For A Dollar Comeback

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Euro climbing into thin air...

RFK Jr. Can Save Liberalism... By Endorsing Trump

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RFK, Jr. entered the race because he wanted to effect major positive change for the future of the country. He still has that chance.


Equities flat/firmer, Dollar gains & JPY underperforms; US Payroll Revisions & FOMC Minutes due - Newsquawk US Market Open

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  • European bourses are mostly modestly firmer; US futures rangebound ahead of US Payroll Revisions and the FOMC Minutes
  • Dollar is incrementally firmer, JPY is the clear underperformer with USD/JPY around 146.00
  • Bonds are flat with traders mindful of today’s key risk events
  • Crude is flat, XAU is rangebound and holds just above USD 2500/oz, base metals entirely in the green
  • Looking ahead, Canadian Producer Prices, US Payrolls Benchmark NSA Prelim, FOMC Minutes, Democratic Con

RFK Jr Campaign Mulling "Joining Forces With Trump" Because We 'Run The Risk Of Enabling A Harris/Walz Presidency'

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"...the extent by which the sabotage the DNC unleashed upon us is mindblowing..."


Asking the world’s best cardiologist: How low should you go on LDL cholesterol?

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The “life & death” importance of lowering LDL.

Goldman Says European NatGas Price Rally "Overdone" As Flows Continue Through Ukraine

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"That said, the TTF rally illustrates how sensitive the market remains to any tightening risks into this winter, and we agree that winter..."